China's military has launched the first
of a new class of ballistic missile submarines in what
defense officials view as a major step forward in Beijing's
strategic weapons program.
The new 094-class submarine was launched
in late July and when fully operational in the next year
or two will be the first submarine to carry the underwater-launched
version of China's new DF-31 missile, according to defense
officials.
These are the missiles that U.S. President
Bill Clinton authorized the design transfer to China,
which mimic our complicated W-88 warheads for our Trident
nuclear missile subs. (see
the story)
"When fully operational, it will
represent a more modern, more capable missile platform,"
said one official familiar with reports of the new submarine.
A second intelligence official said building
submarines is a top priority of the Chinese, and the Type
094 will be "China's first truly intercontinental
strategic nuclear delivery system."
The new Type 094 was spotted by U.S. intelligence
agencies at the Huludao shipyard, located on the coast
of Bohai Bay, some 250 miles northwest of Beijing.
The submarine is in the early stages of
being outfitted and is not yet equipped with new JL-2
submarine-launched nuclear missiles.
The submarine is believed to be based
largely on Russian nuclear submarine technology, the officials
said. The missile technology and guidance systems came
from the U.S. Loral Space Corporation which was approved
for transfer by Ron Brown under the Clinton Administration.
Ron Brown was killed in a freak plane crash on April 3,
1996 when his jet crashed into a Serbian mountain under
the guidance of two Air Force AWACS EC-3 command posts
and three ground controllers which kept trying to vector
the plane to the proper runway, and the plane kept trying
to fly into the mountain despite desperate attempts by
the Air Force pilots.
A CIA report stated that Russia was a
major supplier of technology to China's naval nuclear
propulsion programs.
The launching of the new missile submarine
appears ahead of schedule. A Pentagon report on Chinese
military power made public in May stated that the new
Chinese missile submarine would not be deployed until
around 2010.
A Defense Intelligence Agency report produced
in 1999 and labeled "secret" stated that the
new submarine is part of a program by China of "modernizing
and expanding its missile force."
"Mobile, solid-fuel missiles and
a new ballistic missile submarine will improve the force's
ability to survive a first strike," the report said,
"while more launchers, on-board penetration aids,
and possibly multiple warheads will improve its ability
to penetrate missile defenses."
The DIA report stated that China is expected
to field one new ballistic missile submarine by 2020.
A Chinese Embassy spokesman had no immediate comment.
In a related development, U.S. intelligence
officials said the Chinese suffered a setback in their
JL-2 missile program when a test flight of the JL-2 missile
failed over the summer.
The JL-2 missile program was delayed by
the test failure but is continuing to be developed, the
officials said. China conducted tests of the JL-2 in 2002
and last year.
Richard Fisher, vice president of the
Washington-based International Assessment and Strategy
Center, said the launch of the new missile submarine is
"an astounding development."
"The 094 has followed 093 development
far more rapidly than the assessments in the annual Pentagon
reports on the PLA," Mr. Fisher said, referring to
the China's People's Liberation Army.
China also recently launched a new attack submarine known
as the Type 093. Additionally, U.S. intelligence agencies
were surprised by China's disclosure in July of a third
new type of submarine known as the Yuan-class, a diesel-electric
attack submarine.
"In the very near future, China will
have a secure, second-strike nuclear attack capability
that it will use to bolster its nuclear strategy of seeking
to deter the United States from aiding Taiwan after a
PLA attack," Mr. Fisher said.
Mr. Fisher said the JL-2 likely will have
multiple warheads.
The new submarine will make it more difficult
for the U.S. military to take part in a defense of Taiwan
because of the threat of nuclear retaliation, he said.
The Pentagon has deployed a new missile
defense system, but the Director of the Missile Defense
Agency, Lt. Gen. Ronald T. Kadish (Air Force), said the
current interceptor system is designed to stop a long-range
North Korean missile, but not an attack from Chinese or
Russian missiles.
When pressed to answer why the $11,000,000,000.00
per year program cannot defeat missiles from China or
Russia, Lt. General Kadish states: "These interceptor
missiles are meant to only hit a missile launched from
North Korea. If China launched an ICBM, they would track
a different intercept arc, and that was never designed
into these missiles."
When pressed further, Lt. General Kadish
stated: "No, they cannot hit sub-launched missiles.
We will have to absorb those if they are launched, and
attack the launch sites with our own if that day comes.
We trail their subs daily, and if they ever ramp-up to
launch, hopefully our Boomers send them to the bottom
before they ever even open their tubes if they try to
fire missiles in anger. They know that we know where they
are. If they fire, they die, and we'll probably kill them
when they start to fire before anything goes bad."
A 1999 report by the House Select Committee
on U.S. National Security and Military/Commercial Concerns
with the People's Republic of China stated that the new
missile submarine will likely benefit from stolen U.S.
nuclear warhead designs.
The report stated that the JL-2 is expected
to have a longer range than the DF-31 and that 16 JL-2s
will be deployed on the new submarine.
The range of the JL-2 is estimated to
be about 7,500 miles, enough "to strike targets throughout
the United States," the report said.
"Instead of venturing into the open
ocean to attack the United States, the Type 094-class
submarines could remain near [Chinese] waters, protected
by the [People's Liberation Army,] Navy and Air Force,"
the report said.
General Kadish stated that his biggest
fear in a China vs Taiwan missile exchange is the Chinese
version of the Mosquit missile. "That missile is
the deal-breaker. The Mosquit is designed specifically
to defeat the "outpost" defense strategy of
our Carrier Battle Groups. The Chinese have U.S.-designed
nuclear warheads on those, and it is not inconceivable
that a few would make it through to sink our projection
force carriers. Those are the worst weapons we face, by
far. We carry nuclear weapons again after the brief 1990's
Naval mutual nuclear moratorium for that threat, and that
threat alone. Our carriers are sailing in a potential
nuclear weapon combat zone, and nuclear weapons could
be deployed at any time. We have somewhere around 20%
of our vertical launch systems as nuclear again. It used
to be 10 percent."
The new submarine will be a major improvement
over China's current ballistic missile submarine known
as the Xia, which is equipped with medium-range SBN missiles.
The current Xia submarine is considered
so noisy that they currently use them as decoys to disrupt
US SBN subs for underwater detection.
By admission of a Chinese sub officer,
he says he knows their sub is watched at all times
Washington Times.com.
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