North Korea has not only the military power but
also the political will to wage total war against the
United States.
(An English abstract of a paper)
1. North Korea Can Engage the US in Total War
North Korea is one of the few nations that can engage in
a total war with the United States. The US war planners
recognize this fact. For example, on March 7, 2000, Gen.
Thomas A Schwartz, the US commander in Korea at the
time, testified at a US congressional hearing that
"North Korea is the country most likely to involve the
United States in a large-scale war."
North Korea, which can and is willing to face up to the
sole military superpower of the world, cannot be called
a weak nation. Nevertheless, Western press and analysts
distort the truth and depict North Korea as an
"impoverished" nation, starving and on the brink of
imminent collapse. An impoverished, starving nation
cannot face down a military superpower. Today few
nations have military assets strong enough to challenge
the US military. Russia, though weakened by the collapse
of the Soviet Union, has enough assets to face up to the
US. China, somewhat weaker than Russia, too, has strong
military that can challenge the US. However, both Russia
and China lack the political will to face down the US.
In contrast, North Korea has not only the military power
but also the political will to wage total war against
the United States. North Korea has made it clear that it
will strike all US targets with all means, if the US
mounted military attacks on North Korea. That North
Korea's threat is no bluff can be seen from the
aggressive actions taken by North Korea since the Korean
War armistice, most recent of which is North Korea's
attempt to capture an American spy plane. In the morning
of March 1, 2003, an American RC-132S spy plane, Cobra
Ball, took off from a US airbase in Okinawa, and cruised
along the East coast of North Korea collecting
electronic signals. The US intelligence suspected that
North Korea was about to test a long-range missile and
the plane was there to monitor the suspected missile
launch.
When the US plane reached a point about 193 km from the
coast of North Korea, two MiG-29 and two MiG-21 fighter
planes showed up unexpectedly. The North Korean planes
approached within 16 m and signaled the US plane to
follow them. The US pilot refused to follow the command
and left the scene posthaste. The US plane was tailed by
the hostiles for about 22 min but let the US spy plane
go. There are two key points to be observed here.
First, the hostile planes waited for the US plane at the
Uhrang airbase, located about 200 km from the point of
air encounter. They knew that the US plane was coming.
The North Korean planes flew 200 km to intercept the US
plane. Did the US plane see them coming? If it did, why
no evasive action? After intercepting the US plane, the
hostile planes dogged it for 22 min. Why no American
planes for the rescue? The US crew must have informed
the base of the danger they were in, but no action was
taken by the base. If Kim Jong Il had given the command,
the MiGs would have shot down the US plane and returned
to their base before the US could have scrambled war
planes.
Second, North Korea intercepted an American spy plane
flying 200 km from its coast. According to the
international norm, a nation's territorial air space
extends 19 km from its coast line. The US is the
exception and claims air space of 370 km from its coast
line; any foreign airplane violating this extended air
space is challenged or shot down by the US military.
2. North Korea's Massive Retaliation Strategy
North Korea's war plan in case of an US attack is total
war, not the 'low-intensity limited warfare' or
'regional conflict' talked about among the Western
analysts. North Korea will mount a total war if attacked
by the US. There are three aspects to this war plan.
First, total war is North Korea's avowed strategy in
case of US preemptive attacks. The US war on Iraq shows
that the US can and will mount preemptive strikes in
clear violation of international laws, and the United
Nations is powerless to stop the US. Any nation that is
weak militarily may be attacked by the US at will. It is
reasonable for North Korea to deter US attacks with
threats of total war.
Second, North Korea expects no help from China, Russia,
or other nations in case of war with the US. It knows
that it will be fighting the superpower alone.
Nominally, China and Russia are North Korea's allies but
neither ally is expected to provide any assistance to
North Korea in case of war. Neither nation can or is
willing to protect North Korea from attacks by the US,
and North Korea alone can and will protect itself from
US attacks. This principle of self-defense applies to
all nations.
Third, North Korea's total war plan has two components:
massive conventional warfare and weapons of mass
destruction. If the US mounts a preemptive strike on
North Korea's Yongbyon nuclear plants, North Korea will
retaliate with weapons of mass destruction: North Korea
will mount strategic nuclear attacks on the US targets.
The US war planners know this and have drawn up their
own nuclear war plan. In a nuclear exchange, there is no
front or rear areas, no defensive positions or attack
formations as in conventional warfare. Nuclear weapons
are offensive weapons and there is no defense against
nuclear attacks except retaliatory nuclear attacks. For
this reason, North Korea's war plan is offensive in
nature: North Korea's war plan goes beyond repulsing US
attackers and calls for destruction of the United
States.
The US war plan '5027' calls for military occupation of
North Korea; it goes beyond the elimination of North
Korea's weapons of mass destruction. The US military
regards North Korea its main enemy and likewise North
Korea regards the US its main enemy. South Korea, too,
regards North Korea its main enemy but North Korea does
not regard South Korea its main enemy because South
Korea is a client state of the United States and has no
ability or power to act independent of the US. North
Korea's war plan is not for invading South Korea but for
destroying the US.
3. North Korea's Military Capability
All nations keep their military capability secret. North
Korea is no exception and it is not easy to assess North
Korea's military power. The US claims that it knows
North Korea's military secrets. The United States
collects intelligence on North Korea using a variety of
means: American U-2, RC-135, EP-3 and other
high-altitude spy planes watch over North Korea 24 hours
7 days a week. The US 5th Air Reconnaissance Squadron
has U-2R, U-2S, and other advanced spy planes at the
Ohsan airbase in South Korea. In addition, the US has 70
KH-11 spy satellites hovering over North Korea.
In spite of such a massive deployment of intelligence
collection assets, the US intelligence on North Korea is
faulty at best. Donald Gregg, a former US ambassador to
Seoul and a 30-year CIA veteran, has admitted that the
US intelligence on North Korea has been the longest
lasting story of failure in the annals of US
intelligence. Gregg said that even the best spy gadget
in the US arsenal cannot read what's on Kim Jong Il's
mind. US Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld said that North
Korea uses underground optical fibers for military
communication and that it is nearly impossible to plant
human agents in North Korea.
Although North Korea's military secrets are impervious
to US spy operations, one can draw some general pictures
from information available in the public domain.
a) North Korea makes its own weapons
North Korea has annual production capacity for 200,000
AK automatic guns, 3,000 heavy guns, 200 battle tanks,
400 armored cars and amphibious crafts. North Korea
makes its own submarines, landing drafts, high-speed
missile-boats, and other types of warships. Home-made
weaponry makes it possible for North Korea to maintain a
large military force on a shoestring budget. North Korea
defense industry is made of three groups: weapon
production, production of military supplies, and
military-civilian dual-use product manufacturing.
North Korea has 17 plants for guns and artillery, 35
plants for ammunition, 5 plants for tanks and armored
cars, 8 plants for airplanes, 5 plants for warships, 3
plants for guided missiles, 5 plants for communication
equipment, and 8 plants for biochemical warheads - 134
plants in total. In addition, many plants that make
consumer products are designed so that they can be made
to produce military items with minimum modification.
About 180 of defense related plants are built
underground in the rugged mountainous areas of Jagang-do.
Several small to medium hydro-power plants serve these
plants so that it would be nearly impossible for the US
to cut off power to the plants.
b) North Korea has its own war plans
North Korea is mountainous and its coasts are long and
jagged. The Korean peninsula is narrow on its waste.
North Korea's weapons and war tactics are germane to
Korea's unique geography. North Korea has developed its
own war plans unique to fighting the US in a unique way.
North Korea's military is organized into several
independent, totally integrated and self-sufficient
fighting units, that are ready for action at any time.
c) North Korean soldiers are well indoctrinated
The US commanders admit that North Korean soldiers are
highly motivated and loyal to Kim Jong Il, and that they
will fight well in case of war. Karl von Clausewitz said
that people's support for war, military commanders'
ability and power, and the political leadership are the
three essentials for winning war. He failed to include
the political indoctrination of the soldiers, which is
perhaps more important than the other factors cited.
During the Iraq War just ended, the main cause of Iraq's
defeat was the low moral of its soldiers. Iraqi soldiers
had no will to stand and fight, and they ran away or
surrendered without fight. Iraqi soldiers believed in
Allah protecting them and became easy preys to the US
military. North Korean soldiers are taught to fight to
the bitter end. In September 1996, a North Korean
submarine got stranded at Kangrung, South Korea, and its
crew abandoned the ship. Eleven of the crew committed
suicide and the rest fought to the last man except one
who was captured. In June 1998, another submarine got
caught in fishing nets at Sokcho and its crew killed
themselves. Such is the fighting spirit of North Korean
soldiers.
d) North Koreans are combat ready
One cannot fight war without military preparedness.
North Korea's regular army is for offensive actions
whereas its militias are homeland defense. North Korea's
regular army consists of 4 corps in the front area, 8
corps in the rear area, one tank corps, 5 armored corps,
2 artillery corps, and 1 corps for the defense of
Pyongyang, South Korea has 19 infantry divisions whereas
North Korea has 80 divisions and brigades.
A North Korean infantry division has 3 infantry
regiments, 1 artillery regiment (3 battalions of 122 mm
rocket launchers and 1 battalion of 152 mortars), one
tank battalion of 31 tanks, one anti-tank battalion, one
anti-aircraft battalion, one engineer battalion, one
communication battalion, one light-infantry battalion,
one recon battalion, and one chemical warfare battalion.
North Korea's militias consist of 1.6 million
self-defense units, 100,000 people's guards, 3.9 million
workers militia, 900,000 youth guard units. These
militias are tasked to defend the homeland. The militias
are fully armed and undergo military trainings
regularly.
i) Artillery
North Korea has 2 artillery corps and 30 artillery
brigades equipped with 120mm self-propelled guns, 152mm
self-propelled mortars, 170mm guns with a range of 50
km, 240 mm multiple rocket launchers with a range of 45
km, and other heavy guns. North Korea has about 18,000
heavy guns. North Korea's 170mm Goksan gun and 240mm
multiple-tube rocket launchers are the most powerful
guns of the world. These guns can lob shells as far
south as Suwon miles beyond Seoul. The big guns are
hidden in caves. Many of them are mounted on rails and
can fire in all directions. They can rain 500,000
conventional and biochemical shells per hour on US
troops near the DMZ. The US army bases at Yijong-bu,
Paju, Yon-chun, Munsan, Ding-gu-chun, and Pochun will be
obliterated in a matter of hours.
The US army in Korea is equipped with Paladin
anti-artillery guns that can trace enemy shells back to
the guns and fire shells at the enemy guns with
pin-point accuracy. However, it takes for the Paladins
about 10 min to locate the enemy guns, during which time
the Paladins would be targeted by the enemy guns Gen.
Thomas A Schwartz, a former US army commander in Korea,
stated that the US army in Korea would be destroyed in
less than three hours.
ii). Blitzkrieg
North Korea has tanks, armored cars, and self-propelled
artillery for blitzkrieg. North Korea has one tank corps
and 15 tank brigades. The tank corps has 5 tank
regiments, each of which has 4 heavy tank battalions, 1
light-tank battalion, one mechanized infantry battalion,
2 self-propelled artillery battalions.
US tanks are designed to operate in open fields. In
1941, Rommel of Germany defeated British troops in North
Africa with tanks. The largest tank battle was fought at
Kursk in 1943, in which the Soviets defeated Germans. In
1973, Egypt defeated Israeli tanks with anti-tank
missiles. All of these tank battles were fought in open
fields. The Gulf War and the recent war in Iraq saw US
tanks in open fields. American and Western tank
commanders do not know how to fight tank battles in
rugged terrains like those of Korea. Tank battles in
Korea will be fought on hilly terrains without any close
air cover, because North Korean fighters will engage US
planes in close dog fights.
North Korea has developed tanks ideally suited for the
many rivers and mountains of Korea. These tanks are
called "Chun-ma-ho", which can navigate steep slopes and
cross rivers as much as 5.5 m deep. North Korea's main
battle tanks - T-62s - have 155 mm guns and can travel
as fast as 60 km per hour. The US main tanks - M1A -
have 120 mm guns and cannot travel faster than 55 km per
hour. North Korean tanks have skins 700 mm thick and
TOW-II is the only anti-tank missile in the US arsenal
that can penetrate this armored skin.
North Korea began to make anti-tank missiles in 1975 and
has been improving its anti-tank missiles for the past
30 years. North Korea's anti-tank missiles are rated the
best in the world and several foreign nations buy them.
The US army in Korea relies on 72 AH-64 Apache attack
helicopters to kill North Korean tanks. Each Apache has
16 Hell-Fire anti-tank missiles. As shown in the recent
Iraq war, Apaches are fragile and can be easily shot
down even with rifles. North Korea has about 15,000
shoulder-fired anti-air missiles ("wha-sung") and
Apaches will be easy targets for wha-sung missiles. On
December 17, 1994, a wha-sung missile brought down an
American OH-58C spy helicopter which strayed north of
the DMZ.
North Korea has 4 mechanized corps and 24 mechanized
brigades. Each brigade has 1 tank battalion (31 tanks),
1 armored battalion (46 armored cars), 4 infantry
battalions, one 122mm battalion (18 guns), one 152 mm
battalion (18 guns), one anti-aircraft battalion (18
guns), anti-tank battalion (9 armored cars with
anti-tank missiles and 12 anti-tank guns), one armored
recon company (3 light armored cars, 7 armored cars, and
8 motor-cycles), one mortar company (6 mortars), one
engineer company, one chemical company, and one
communication company. The US army has A-10 attack
planes to counter North Korea's mechanized units. In
case of war, the skies over Korea will be filled with
fighters in close dog-fights and the A-10s would be
ineffective.
The bulk of North Korea's mechanized and tank units are
positioned to cross the DMZ at a moment's notice and run
over the US and South Korean defenders. The attackers
will be aided by SU-25 attack planes and attack
helicopters. In addition, North Korea has 600 high-speed
landing crafts, 140 hovercrafts, and 3,000 K-60 and
other pontoon bridges for river-crossing. North Korea
has 700,000 troops, 8,000 heavy guns, and 2,000 tanks
placed in more than 4,000 hardened bunkers within 150 km
of the DMZ.
iii. Underground Tunnel Warfare
North Korea is the world most-tunneled nation. North
Korea's expertise in digging tunnels for warfare was
demonstrated during the Vietnam War. North Korea sent
about 100 tunnel warfare experts to Vietnam to help dig
the 250 km tunnels for the North Vietnamese and Viet
Gong troops in South Vietnam. The tunnels were
instrumental in the Vietnamese victory.
North Korea's army runs on company-size units. Tunnel
warfare is conducted by independent company-size units.
Tunnel entrances are built to withstand US chemical and
biological attacks. Tunnels run zig-zag and have seals,
air-purification units, and safe places for the troops
to rest. It is believed that North Korea has built about
20 large tunnels near the DMZ. A large tunnel can
transport 15,000 troops per hour across the DMZ and
place them behind the US troops.
iv. Special Forces
North Korea has the largest special forces, 120,000
troops, in the world. These troops are grouped into
light infantry brigades, attack brigades, air-borne
brigades, and sea-born brigades - 25 brigades in total.
These troops will be tasked to attack US military
installations in Korea, Japan, Okinawa and Guam.
North Korea has the capacity to transport 20,000 special
force troops at the same time. North Korea has 130
high-speed landing crafts and 140 hovercrafts. A North
Korean hovercraft can carry one platoon of troops at 90
km per hour. Western experts pooh-pooh North Korea's
ancient AN-2 transport planes as 1948 relics, but AN-2
planes can fly low beneath US radars and deliver up to
10 troops at 160 km per hour. North Korea makes AN-2s
and has about 300 in place. In addition, North Korea has
hang-gliders that can carry 5-20 men each for short
hops.
North Korea has developed special bikes for mountain
warfare. Special forces use these bikes for fast
deployments on mountains. Switzerland is the only other
nation that has bike-mounted special forces trained for
mountain warfare. The rugged terrains of the Korean
Peninsula are ideally suited for special forces
operations. North Korea's special forces will attack US
targets in Japan, Okinawa, and Guam as well. Japan's
self defense units are being reorganized to counter this
threat.
How good are North Korea's special forces? In September
1996, a North Korean submarine was stranded near Kang-nung
and the crew were forced to abandon the ship and land on
South Korea. The sub had two special forces agents who
had finished a mission in South Korea and were picked up
by the sub before the sub ran into a rock. The two men
fought off an army of South Korean troops and remained
at large for 50 days, during which they killed 11 of the
pursuers.
4. Weapons of Mass Destruction
a. Missile Readiness
North Korea is a nuclear state along with the US,
Russia, China, the Great Britain, France, India,
Pakistan, and Israel. North Korea has succeeded in
weaponizing nuclear devices for missile delivery. North
Korea has operational fleets of ICBM and
intermediate-range missiles equipped with nuclear
warheads. I have written on this subject previously and
will not replicate the details here.
It was May of 1994, nine years ago, when the US military
planners had first realized that North Korea had the
bomb and devised nuclear attack plans under William
Perry, the then US Secretary of Defense. Perry had
estimated that North Korea would have about 100 nuclear
warheads by 2000. Dr. Kim Myong Chul, an expert on Kim
Jong Il's war plans, has recently confirmed that North
Korea has more than 100 nukes including hydrogen bombs.
North Korea can produce about 100 missiles a year. It
began to make missiles in 1980 and has about 1,000
missiles of various types in place, about 100 of which
have nuclear warheads. These missiles are hidden in
caves and underground launching pads. At present, the US
has no fool-proof defense against North Korean missiles,
and in case of war, North Korean missiles can do serious
damages: several hundreds of thousands of US troops will
die, and scores of US bases and carrier battle groups
will be destroyed. The Patriot anti-missile missiles are
deployed in South Korea but as shown in the recent Iraq
war, the Patriots are not 100% accurate or reliable even
under ideal conditions.
b. Biochemical Warfare
North Korea has a large stockpile of biochemical
weapons. Each Army corps has a chemical company and each
regiment has a chemical platoon. In the May 1994 nuclear
crisis, Perry warned North Korea that the US would
retaliate with nuclear weapons if North Korea used
chemical weapons on US troops.
North Korean troops and citizens are well-prepared for
bio-chemical attacks.
5. North Korea's Defense Against US Attacks
a. Fortification
North Korea began to build fortifications in 1960s. All
key military facilities are built underground to
withstand American bunker-buster bombs. North Korea has
8,236 underground facilities that are linked by 547 km
of tunnels. Beneath Pyongyang are a huge underground
stadium and other facilities. About 1.2 million tons of
food, 1.46 million tons of fuel, and 1.67 million tons
of ammunition are stored in underground storage areas
for wartime use.
Most of the underground facilities are drilled into
granite rocks and the entrances face north in order to
avoid direct hits by American bombs and missiles. The
B-61 Mod 11 is the main bunker buster in the US arsenal.
A recent test showed that this buster could penetrate
only 6 meters of rock. The latest GBU-28 laser-guided
bunker-buster can penetrate to 30m. North Korean bunkers
have at least 80 m of top-cover of solid rocks. North
Korea has many false caves that emit heat that will
misdirect unwary GBU-28/37 and BKU-113 bunker-busters.
The US military targets enemy command and control
centers based on the doctrine of chopping off "the head
of the snake." With the top commanders eliminated, the
rank and file would be demoralized, leaderless and would
surrender. North Korea's extensive underground
fortification makes this strategy unworkable. In
addition, the underground facilities make US spy planes
and satellites impotent.
b. Air Defense
North Korea has a large number of ground-to-air
missiles. It has SA-2 and SA-3 missiles against
low-flying enemy planes, and SA-5 missiles for
high-altitude planes. SA-5 missiles have an effective
range of 250 km. SA-5 missiles can hit enemy planes
flying over the middle of South Korea.
North Korea has reengineered US shoulder-fired
anti-aircraft missiles captured in Vietnam, and designed
its own missile, wha-sung. North Korea began to
manufacture wha-sung missiles in 1980. Wha-sung comes in
two models: SA-7 that has an effective range of 5 km and
SA-16 with 10 km range. North Korea has more than 15,000
wha-sung missiles in place.
In addition to the missiles, North Korea has 12,000
anti-aircraft guns, including 37mm twin-barrel guns, 23
mm automatics, 57mm, 87mm, and 100mm heavy guns. These
are mostly manually operated and thus not subject to
electronic warfare.
c. Coastal defense
North Korea's coastlines are long and jagged. Coastal
guns are placed in fortified tunnels along the
coastline. North Korea has six ground-to-ship missile
bases. North Korea has anti-ship missiles of 95km range,
and of 160km range. The latter are for hitting US
carrier battle groups over the horizon. North Korean
anti-ship missiles can hit ships anchored at Inchon on
the west and Sokcho on the east.
America's main defense against anti-ship missiles, the
Arleigh Burke class Aegis destroyers are ineffective
outside 20-50 km from missile launch pads.
d. Sea Battles
North Korea has two fleets—the
West Fleet and the East Fleet. The West Fleet has 6
squadrons of 320 ships and the East Fleet has 10
squadrons of 460 ships. The navy has a total manpower of
46,000. North Korean ships are sheltered from US attacks
in about 20 bunkers of 200-900 m long and 14-22 m wide.
North Korean ships are small and agile, designed for
coastal defense. North Korean ships carry 46km range
ship-to-ship missiles and 22-channel multiple rocket
launchers.
The main enemy of the North Korean navy will be US
carrier task forces. The Russian navy has developed a
tactic to deal with US carriers task forces: massive
simultaneous missile attacks. In addition, Russia has
developed the anti-carrier missile, "jun-gal", that can
destroy a carrier. China has developed similar tactics
for destroying US carriers. On April 1, 2003, North
Korea test-fired a high-speed ground-to-ship missile of
60km range. A US carrier task force of Nimitz class has
6,000 men, 70 planes, and a price tag of 4.5 billion
dollars. Destroying even a single career task force will
be traumatic.
A carrier is protected by a shield of 6 Aegis destroyers
and nuclear attack submarines. An Aegis destroyer has an
AN/SPY-1 high-capacity radar system that can track more
than 100 targets at the same time. An Aegis can fire
about 20 anti-missile missiles at the same time. Thus, a
carrier force can track a total of 600 targets at a time
and fire 120 anti-missile missiles at the same time. The
anti-missile missiles have about 50% success under ideal
conditions. In actual battle situations, the hit rate
will be much lower and the best estimate is that the
Aegis shield can intercept at most 55 incoming missiles.
Therefore, a volley of about 60 missiles and rockets
will penetrate the Aegis shield and hit the career.
North Korea acquired OSA and KOMAR high-speed missile
boats in 1968, and began to build its own missile boats
in 1981. It has more than 50 missile boats, each
equipped with 4 missiles of 46km range and multiple
rocket launchers. In addition, North Korea has about 300
speed boats, 200 torpedo boats and 170 other gunboats.
In case of war, North Korea's small crafts and
submarines will swarm around US career task forces and
destroy them.
North Korea has 35 submarines and 65 submersibles. These
crafts are equipped with torpedoes and will be used to
attack US carriers. They will also lay mines and block
enemy harbors. North Korea has a large supply of mines.
North Korean submarines are small but they are equipped
with 8km rocket launchers and 70km anti-ship missiles,
and they could do some serious damage to US carriers.
e. Air Combat
North Korea has three air commands. Each command has a
fighter regiment, a bomber regiment, an AN-2 regiment,
an attack helicopter regiment, a missile regiment, and a
radar regiment. Each command can operate independently.
North Korea has 70 airbases, which are fortified against
US attacks. Underground hangars protect the planes and
have multiple exits for the planes to take off on
different runways. North Korea has several fake
airfields and fake planes to confuse US attackers.
It is said that North Korea's planes are obsolete and no
match for US planes. North Korea has 770 fighters, 80
bombers, 700 transports, 290 helicopters, and 84,000
men. In case of war, North Korean planes will fly low
hugging the rugged terrains and attack enemy targets. US
planes are parked above ground at bases in Korea, Japan,
Okinawa and Guam, and make easy targets for missile,
rocket and air attacks. When war breaks out, North
Korean missiles, rockets and heavy guns will destroy the
8 US airbases in South Korea, and any plane in the air
would have no place to land.
North Korea's fighter planes are ill-equipped for
air-to-air combats at long distances, but they can hold
their own in close-quarter air combat. MiG-21 fighters
from Bongchun and US F-15s from Ohsan would meet in less
than 5 min, assuming they took off at about the same
time. In about 5 min, hundreds of MiG21s and F-15s would
be swirling in the skies over Korea. Ground-to-air
missiles and air-to-air missiles would have a hard time
telling friends from foes. F-15Es are equipped with a
radar system that locks on at 180 km for large objects
and 90 km for small objects. Sidewinder missiles have an
effective range of 16km, AMRAAM missiles of 50km, and
Sparrows of 55km.
Korea is 100 km wide and 125 km long, and so US
air-to-air missiles would be of limited use and
effectiveness, because North Korean MiGs would approach
the US planes in close proximity and commingle with US
planes, and air-to-air missiles will become useless and
machines guns will have to be used. MiG19s have 30mm
guns, MiG21s have 23mm guns, and F-14s have 20mm Vulkans.
North Korean pilots are trained to hug the enemy planes
so that air-to-air missiles cannot be used. In contrast,
US pilots are trained to lock on the enemy at long
distance with radar and fire missiles. US planes are
heavily armed with electronics and less agile than the
light, lean MiGs that can climb and turn faster than the
US planes.
F-14s are about 3.3 times heavier than MiG21s, and
F-15Es are about 3.6 times heavier. MiG21s are 16.6 m
long whereas F-14s are 19.1 m and F-15Es 19.43 m long.
MiG21s cab climb to 18km, whereas F-14s can climb to
15.8 km and F-15s to 15.2 km. MiGs get upper hands in
close-range dogfights in which agility matters. In
Vietnam, US planes were forced to jettison auxiliary gas
tanks and bombs in order to engage MiGs. F-15E planes
will carry BLU-113 bunker busters that weigh 2,250 kg
each in the next war in Korea. Loaded with such a heavy
bomb, F-15s will become easy targets for North Korea's
MiGs. US fighter-bombers will be protected by F-15C
fighter escorts.
MiG21s are North Korea's main workhorse. The MiG21
debuted in 1965 in Vietnam and proved itself as an
effective attack fighter. In 1999, North Korea bought 40
MiG21s from Kazakhstan. During the Vietnam War, MiG17s
shot down dozens of American planes. North Korea sent
more than 200 pilots to fight in the Vietnam War. They
were tasked to defend Hanoi and shot down scores of US
planes. North Korea sent 25 pilots to Syria during the
3rd Arab-Israeli war of 1966, and 30 pilots to Egypt and
Syria during the 4th Arab-Israeli war of 1973. In 1976,
North Korea sent more than 40 pilots to Syria.
f. Electronic Warfare
The United States excels in electronic warfare and no
nation comes anywhere near the US capability. North
Korea began developing its own electronic warfare
methods in 1970. It is believed that North Korea has
advanced electronic warfare ability. It has numerous
counter measures for US electronic warfare. During the
recent war in Iraq, the US dropped e-bombs that disabled
the Iraqi electronic devices. North Korea relies heavily
on non-electronic command and control means, and hence
US e-bombs will have limited impacts in North Korea.
North Korea trains about 100 hackers a year and has
computer virus battalions in place. These hackers are
capable of interrupting US communication networks. In a
war game conducted in 1991 by US war planners, North
Korea came out the victor with and without nuclear
weapons. Kim Jong Il has no doubt that his army can beat
the US army.
6. US Military Defeats in the Past
Military power dictates the outcome of war. In assessing
the next war in Korea, the military power of the
opponents must be examined objectively. Until now, North
Korea's military power has not been properly studied. In
general, Western experts tend to underestimate North
Korea's military strength. Politicians in America and
South Korea play down North Korean threats for political
reasons.
It has been said that North Korean army is large in
numbers but their equipment are obsolete, and hence it
is a weak army. The US war planners assess North Korean
army using computer simulations of war in Korea. US war
plan for the recent Iraq war was refined using more than
40 computer-simulated wars in Iraq. The computer
simulation models use weapon system features among other
factors to determine the outcome.
It is true that the advanced weapons were instrumental
in the US victory in the Gulf War, Yugoslavia,
Afghanistan, and Iraq. On the other hand, the US army
was defeated by ill-equipped foes in Korea and Vietnam.
The latter two wars show that superior weapons do not
always lead to a victory. North Korean and Chinese
forces in Korea and the Vietnamese forces fought with
superior tactics and stronger fighting fighting spirits.
In the next war in Korea, the US army will face an enemy
much more determined and better equipped than the army
in the Korean War of 1950-53.
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