Climate
change over the next 20 years could result in a global
catastrophe costing millions of lives in wars and
natural disasters..
A secret report, suppressed by US defense chiefs and
obtained by The Observer, warns that major European
cities will be sunk beneath rising seas as Britain is
plunged into a 'Siberian' climate by 2020. Nuclear
conflict, mega-droughts, famine and widespread rioting
will erupt across the world.
The document predicts that abrupt climate change
could bring the planet to the edge of anarchy as
countries develop a nuclear threat to defend and secure
dwindling food, water and energy supplies. The threat to
global stability vastly eclipses that of terrorism, say
the few experts privy to its contents.
'Disruption and conflict will be endemic features of
life,' concludes the Pentagon analysis. 'Once again,
warfare would define human life.'
The findings will prove humiliating to the Bush
administration, which has repeatedly denied that climate
change even exists. Experts said that they will also
make unsettling reading for a President who has insisted
national defense is a priority.
The report was commissioned by influential Pentagon
defense adviser Andrew Marshall, who has held
considerable sway on US military thinking over the past
three decades. He was the man behind a sweeping recent
review aimed at transforming the American military under
Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.
Climate change 'should be elevated beyond a
scientific debate to a US national security concern',
say the authors, Peter Schwartz, CIA consultant and
former head of planning at Royal Dutch/Shell Group, and
Doug Randall of the California-based Global Business
Network.
An imminent scenario of catastrophic climate change
is 'plausible and would challenge United States national
security in ways that should be considered immediately',
they conclude. As early as next year widespread flooding
by a rise in sea levels will create major upheaval for
millions.
Last week the Bush administration came under heavy
fire from a large body of respected scientists who
claimed that it cherry-picked science to suit its policy
agenda and suppressed studies that it did not like.
Jeremy Symons, a former whistleblower at the
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), said that
suppression of the report for four months was a further
example of the White House trying to bury the threat of
climate change.
Senior climatologists, however, believe that their
verdicts could prove the catalyst in forcing Bush to
accept climate change as a real and happening
phenomenon. They also hope it will convince the United
States to sign up to global treaties to reduce the rate
of climatic change.
A group of eminent UK scientists recently visited the
White House to voice their fears over global warming,
part of an intensifying drive to get the US to treat the
issue seriously. Sources have told The Observer that
American officials appeared extremely sensitive about
the issue when faced with complaints that America's
public stance appeared increasingly out of touch.
One even alleged that the White House had written to
complain about some of the comments attributed to
Professor Sir David King, Tony Blair's chief scientific
adviser, after he branded the President's position on
the issue as indefensible.
Among those scientists present at the White House
talks were Professor John Schellnhuber, former chief
environmental adviser to the German government and head
of the UK's leading group of climate scientists at the
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. He said that
the Pentagon's internal fears should prove the 'tipping
point' in persuading Bush to accept climatic change.
Sir John Houghton, former chief executive of the
Meteorological Office - and the first senior figure to
liken the threat of climate change to that of terrorism
- said: 'If the Pentagon is sending out that sort of
message, then this is an important document indeed.'
Bob Watson, chief scientist for the World Bank and
former chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, added that the Pentagon's dire warnings could no
longer be ignored.
'Can Bush ignore the Pentagon? It's going be hard to
blow off this sort of document. Its hugely embarrassing.
After all, Bush's single highest priority is national
defense. The Pentagon is no wacko, liberal group,
generally speaking it is conservative. If climate change
is a threat to national security and the economy, then
he has to act. There are two groups the Bush
Administration tend to listen to, the oil lobby and the
Pentagon,' added Watson.
'You've got a President who says global warming is a
hoax, and across the Potomac river you've got a Pentagon
preparing for climate wars. It's pretty scary when Bush
starts to ignore his own government on this issue,' said
Rob Gueterbock of Greenpeace.
Already, according to Randall and Schwartz, the
planet is carrying a higher population than it can
sustain. By 2020 'catastrophic' shortages of water and
energy supply will become increasingly harder to
overcome, plunging the planet into war. They warn that
8,200 years ago climatic conditions brought widespread
crop failure, famine, disease and mass migration of
populations that could soon be repeated.
Randall told The Observer that the potential
ramifications of rapid climate change would create
global chaos. 'This is depressing stuff,' he said. 'It
is a national security threat that is unique because
there is no enemy to point your guns at and we have no
control over the threat.'
Randall added that it was already possibly too late
to prevent a disaster happening. 'We don't know exactly
where we are in the process. It could start tomorrow and
we would not know for another five years,' he said.
'The consequences for some nations of the climate
change are unbelievable. It seems obvious that cutting
the use of fossil fuels would be worthwhile.'
So dramatic are the report's scenarios, Watson said,
that they may prove vital in the US elections.
Democratic frontrunner John Kerry is known to accept
climate change as a real problem. Scientists
disillusioned with Bush's stance are threatening to make
sure Kerry uses the Pentagon report in his campaign.
The fact that Marshall is behind its scathing
findings will aid Kerry's cause. Marshall, 82, is a
Pentagon legend who heads a secretive think-tank
dedicated to weighing risks to national security called
the Office of Net Assessment. Dubbed 'Yoda' by Pentagon
insiders who respect his vast experience, he is credited
with being behind the Department of Defense's push on
ballistic-missile defense.
Symons, who left the EPA in protest at political
interference, said that the suppression of the report
was a further instance of the White House trying to bury
evidence of climate change. 'It is yet another example
of why this government should stop burying its head in
the sand on this issue.'
Symons said the Bush administration's close links to
high-powered energy and oil companies was vital in
understanding why climate change was received
skeptically in the Oval Office. 'This administration is
ignoring the evidence in order to placate a handful of
large energy and oil companies,' he added.